Dave Malinsky
Has lost 120 units in basketball and baseball since april 20th.
Tuesday NBA
4* #706 CLEVELAND over ATLANTA
The fact that Cleveland is an outstanding team that not only brings a proper focus to the table, but also a lot of rest and preparation time for this one, is out there for everyone to see. The fact that Atlanta is an extremely limited team in terms of tactics and fundamentals, and not only carries a measure of fatigue off of the Miami series but also has little prep time, is also out there for everyone to see. And usually in such settings value is difficult to come by. But not this time. Not only do we see overwhelming overall edges to Cleveland for this series, but they are particularly strong for this opener. And asking for the Cavaliers to win by a dozen points is not asking much at all in this setting.
Cleveland is 7-1 at home in the playoffs the last two seasons, winning the eight games by a combined total of 112 points, or 14.0 per game. When you factor that three of those games came against a Boston team on the way to a championship, that says an awful lot. And in the three games here they beat the Celtics by a combined 40 points, or 13.3 per game. Now it is a team that has not only had another season of working together to develop that outstanding defensive chemistry, but the addition of Maurice Williams brings offensive explosiveness that was formerly missing. They toyed with Detroit in winning by a combined 30 points on this floor in the first round, and because of the mentality that they bring to the table, we expect a tenacious “send a message” level of intensity in this opener.
The Hawks bring a glass jaw against that kind of punch. While our opinion of them is not high, this aspect is merely fact – they have played seven road playoff games the past two seasons, going 1-6, and the losses have reached a low that only a savvy spelunker could find, falling by 23, 19, 24 and 34 at Boston LY, and by 29 and 26 in absolutely horrendous showings at Miami over the past two weeks. While there is some individual talent and athleticism, the X’s and O’s lag far what playoff teams at this stage usually bring, and they show little heart to compete when things are not going well. How bad were the losses at Miami? During the regular-season the biggest margin of victory the Heat had through 82 games was 26 points.
As for the matchups, neither the points nor the rebounds come easily for Atlanta. At this stage Mike Bobby can no longer penetrate to create shots for the rest of the team, which makes him easy to guard, and they showed throughout the Miami series an inability to deal with double teams on Joe Johnson. Now they step up against a much higher level of defense, which only enhances those weaknesses, and it means a lot of empty trips in the early stages. Given their lack of punch, leadership and heart, it also means a long evening of playing from behind, and with the carry-over fatigue from having to go seven games against Miami, we see this margin only growing as the evening goes on.
4* #710 DENVER over DALLAS
In Game #1 our focus was on the Total in this one, with our break-down keying on how many of the key cogs were running into difficult defensive matchups. And what we see going forward is one team that can deal with those issues, and another that simply can not. Call #2 a blowout similar to the opener, perhaps even wider.
Dallas got a sensational first quarter from Dirk Nowitzki on Sunday, and he keyed a 24-16 advantage after that period. But the game, and we believe the series, turned early. After Nowitzki got off to a 5-5 start from the field, a message got sent with a hard foul by Kenyon Martin with 5:57 left in the quarter. It was a wake-up call that the Nuggets needed following that New Orleans series that had been too easy, and after Dallas scored three points on that particular possession (Martin’s foul got him whistled for a technical), the rest of the game was +20 points in Denver’s favor. Nowitzki was not the same, going 7-17 after that hot start, with most of them difficult looks, and the Nuggets were physically dominant in all aspects of the game. This picks up where that one left off.
Dallas is a soft team. The Mavericks had excellent offensive efficiency numbers during the regular season, but as we noted on Sunday almost none of those elements can get to their usual gear here – Nowitzki faces defenders in Martin and Chris Anderson that will make him work hard for everything he can get; Josh Howard is up against Carmelo Anthony, who now tries on that end; Jason Kidd just has an awful team against Chauncey Billups (twice as many turnovers as assists on Sunday); and Jason Terry has tough one-on-one defenders in Dahntay Jones and Anthony Carter to shadow him. The Mavs were an offensive disaster on Sunday, with an inability to get the ball to the basket (only 13 free throw attempts, one of those coming on the aforementioned technical), and 20 turnovers vs. only 17 assists, but they masqueraded some of that with 48.8 percent shooting. This time the shooting is unlikely to reach that level again, which poses serious issues.
Denver can turn those issues into easy points once again. The Nuggets are far quicker in the open court, which means a lot of easy opportunities off of Dallas turnovers or misses, and in the half-court they also found that they could use their quickness to advantage, particularly from J. R. Smith. While the fact that only two of his 13 shot attempts were from beyond the arc will not show on many radar screens, it was only the third time all season he took more than 10 shots in a game with two or fewer being triples. He made 7-11 on those forays to the basket, while also getting to the free throw line often while dishing out six assists, and the Mavericks do not have a counter for him. In Game #2 we can also expect more floor minutes from Anthony, who only played 29:22 in the opener, and Chauncey Billups will far better than his 2-8 performance. The fact that the Nuggets could win so easily with that performance from him, and a team total of 25-36 from the free throw line, speaks volumes.
Denver brings the energy to once again beat Dallas in the open court, which inevitably means the kind of runs that we saw turn Sunday’s game around. And the Mavericks simply lack the quickness and defensive tenacity to be able to chase from behind<!-- / message -->
